Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Quail and Pheasant Hunting Forecast

Not Part Of The Formal Agreement

Mid-America Hunting Association has always been more than a business exchange of money for service. It is the case the success of the Association is based on the relationship between the Association partners, Jon Nee and John Wenzel, and the hunters. The foundation of that relationship are the Association rules. The rules set the minimum expected exchange between the hunter and the Association. Beyond that rules based exchange is courtesy. Part of that courtesy is the exchange of information feedback and ideas. The annual quail and pheasant hunting forecast is such a courtesy exchange.

The Value

What the hunter gains are recommendations where to go quail and pheasant hunting.

Without recommendations the hunter is left to his own resources of where to hunt.

This upland bird forecasts is one source of such recommendation that should result in a better quail or pheasant hunting. A courtesy beyond the rules willingly offered to first year Association hunters. After that first year this quail and pheasant hunting season forecast is given as a thank you to all the hunters that graciously send in their annual quail and pheasant hunting photographs.

Quail and Pheasant Hunting Forecasts Are Based On:

During season upland bird hunting by the Association staff behind their own dogs in Kansas, iowa and Missouri where the Association has private land.

Off season tracking of spring nesting and brood weather.

Summer time rainfall and habitat development.

Contributions voluntarily sent in by Association hunters.

About Our Upland Bird Hunting Forecast

We receive questions every year about our forecast and how we develop it. Several elements that contribute to our forecast includes:

previous season densities,

trusted hunter feedback,

12 month year on the ground observation,

season long weather effects.

Where They Were

Population densities during the previous season indicating the potential carry over for spring mating. We take this evaluation from our own on the ground during the season and late winter assessments. This is combined with the next input, that of our trusted hunters.

Trusted Hunters

We have trusted hunters that are not given to exaggeration or deception on their personal field observations. These hunters give assessments of where the population trends are increasing or decreasing by the regions they hunt. Just as the Association staff may not be able to cover all Association lease land regions during the season neither can any one hunter. However, combining the reports from a good selection of hunters hunting all regions with our year round observations does provide a more complete assessment.

During The Season Hunting

Next, is our own or MAHA staff assessment during the season behind dogs we trained and hunt. Nothing beats first hand experience.

Your Association staff does practice what they preach and rarely are hunting the same units twice in a season. Both Jon Nee and John Wenzel travel about each of the regions during the season. That along with the rest of the year observing weather and habitat effects. Their objective is to give every hunter the best experience possible. The first step in that process is the right habitat in the right region of the state with a history of production. The resulting recommendation to Association hunters of where to hunt is intended to motivate that member to renew his membership due to having a good hunt.

Hatch And Brood

Finally, the most significant indicator. That is spring hatch survival. The combined rainfall during the critical hatch and brood months of May and June for pheasant and summer long for quail.

No other environmental influencing factor that can be measured has such a direct connection to ground nesting fowl populations than the spring rains. The issue is not to have too much rain. As a mark to gauge we have found through the years that less than 10 inches combined May and June rainfall indicates an above average pheasant chick survival rate. This is increasingly so as that rainfall decreases in amount.

Quail on the other hand have a higher frequency of re-nesting. We have observed juvenile conveys at the start of the season. For quail we will continue to track spring through summer weather effects. This refinement of recognizing that pheasant and quail are not the same in their reproduction adds further refinement to the forecast.

What Did Not Work

Other environmental factors we have tracked and attempt to draw correlations to that failed. They have included winter cold temperatures and snowfall. Both of which had no statistical correlation to quail or pheasant hunting quality. In the central mid-west our winters are mild to the point they have none of the degrading affect that northern states suffer. The benefit is of greater spring carry over and general strength of the hens. It is rare to shovel snow from a driveway in Kansas.

The next environmental influence we have has been summer heat and rainfall. This criteria is more about habitat than reproduction.

Cover habitat is degraded by drought or enhanced by rains. A secondary effect being predation protection to maturing juvenile quail and pheasant. That secondary affect has been minimal to non-consequential in terms of population numbers. That same indicator of summer rains and the lack there of during some years does impact hunt quality in spite of numbers. That impact is that good tall grass is thick and five feet average height or better. That cover holds pheasants tight and in numbers that make for the memorable rolling flushes and successive points. These are the conditions where one field, one walk, one dog, one hunter can have four rooster points, four shells and four in the bag kind of day. However, if the grass is thin and low due to drought the pheasants do not concentrate and are far more given to run.

Quail are less affected as weeds will grow. Weeds will attract bugs. Tall grass is not required by quail for protective cover.

When we combine all factors used in our quail and pheasant hunting forecast we assess as to where to recommend hunters to hunt quail and or pheasant. The idea is maximizing their hunt quality and not as a promise of bagging limits every day. This hunt quality aspect includes habitat type. We have experienced hunters that may excel on the brushy draw may achieve only frustration in the tall prairie grass. Getting as many as is reasonable to experience satisfaction from the quality of the hunt rather than by counting bag limits is the goal. bag limits do come. They come to those that seem to first enjoy their dog.

Once More During The Hunting Season

The final element to a good upland bird hunting be it for quail or pheasant hunting is the time and weather conditions during the season. Our early season from the last of October through November is typically warm. This period makes for plenty of 'T' shirt field days and heat fatigued dogs. From December onwards the colder weather becomes more reliable and hunt quality improves for scenting conditions, dog and hunter comfort.

Quail and Pheasant Hunting Forecast Counter Points

Each year when we publish our quail and pheasant hunting forecast it generates discussion. Those topics outside of our Forecast Methodology are shared in this article.

Rainfall

Rainfall we find that most hunters agree with the correlation between ground nesting fowl and spring nesting and brood month rainfall.

For those that may have lingering doubts of that correlation it can be verified by anyone. Compare historical rainfall data available from accuweather.com (premium service) and state conservation agency roadside surveys. For those with years of field experience within our region they will simply compare those rain numbers to bag counts to draw their own conclusions.

The same data sets can be used to compare other environmental influences such as the often cited summer droughts. While summer drought (when it occurs) does affect protective cover quality it has little affect on survival otherwise. This is more a pheasant, tall grass issue than a quail and crop edge cover indicator.

Models Not Uniform

Another recurring discussion is what methodology or model to use.

Quail and pheasant hunting forecasts and geographic or regional comparison models are not interchangeable.

An example are those in the region from central Texas, New Mexico and Arizona where a minimum floor of rain is required to allow for good bug production there go brood survival food source. Their perspective is not if they received too much rain it is along the lines if they receive too little rain they do not have the bug production to allow for good brood success rates.

In the central mid-west, or our three state region of Kansas, Iowa and Missouri, we do not know what a bad bug year is. We always have bugs or more than average bugs with any year showing plenty for brood survival. An agricultural correlation may be drawn from our region where water intensive crops of beans and corn are grown without irrigation in Iowa, Missouri and east Kansas. It is not until central Kansas and west does irrigation become more prevalent with annual precipitation below 35 inches. Compared to the SW region irrigation is the only method water intensive crops are grown.

This correlation continues in these regions as dry land crops of wheat and milo grow without irrigation. Compared that to the central Texas, New Mexico, Arizona region where even deep rooted alfalfa is more often irrigated than not. In our case it is a concern over too much rain rather than too little. We have not detected any correlation between low rainfall amounts and chick to juvenile status survival and do not know how little is too little rainfall within our region.

The analysis of why the 10 inch mark is the cut line between above and below average chick survival rates and subsequent fall hunt quality has been drawn from experience of comparing bag counts of that fall to the previous spring. It was the early 1960's Arizona Study that initially turn us onto this correlation and subsequent other studies the most recent was a few years ago published by the NWTF. They drew conclusions about nesting and brood month rainfall amounts and chick survival to juvenile or quill feather status (the point chicks have a high survival rate in terms of weather conditions).

These studies also provided proofs to other topics to include in the Arizona Study the vertical distribution of ground nests based on humidity and temperatures at elevations. This allows or inhibits in-the-egg chick development. This explained for the first time the environmental limiting factors of why some regions have various partridges and other Bobwhite Quail. Or, as an example in our region why we have different localities for Rios versus Eastern Turkeys.

These studies also drilled down deeper into the rain statistics distinguishing between amounts of rainfall per event, the number and frequency of rainfall events, total rainfall, temperature at the time of rainfall, day versus night rainfall effects. While all these subcategories causes had an enhancing or degrading effect on nest and brood survival it was far more data to assimilated than we had time. In short the studies found that rainfall less than a 1/4 inch per event had less adverse effect than that above 1/4 inch. Rains on warm to hot days less adverse effect than cold days. Night rains less adverse effect than day. A rain that combined two or more of these categories had increased adverse or enhancing effect.

Accountability

What distinguishes our forecast from all others available through state conservation agencies or magazines is that we are accountable to our members. That is in terms of getting them the hunt they desire and our motivation for being right in our forecast is our credibility with those members. That is their likelihood to renew their memberships. To be crass, it comes down to money. To be accurate it is to have a good organization.

What gives us confidence in our forecast is not just the research? It is that we also train and hunt our own dogs within the region we provide the forecast. These two facets (membership accountability and our on the ground throughout the year experience) no other forecast source can claim.

Upland Bird Hunting Forecast and Rain

Quail and pheasant hunting quality is more effected by rain than any other environmental effect that we can measure.

Critics have said in the past we give too much weight to rainfall and not enough to other environmental influences on reproduction and year round survival. We have asked those same critics to offer alternatives. They have offered environmental factors already disclaimed by direct and in-direct research.

The point we made here and elsewhere is that spring brood period rainfall is not the only element to our forecast. It is the final for the year significant indicator of where the better quail and pheasant hunting is to be found. Typically, by this point in the discussion, the critic has sealed his mind to all other than his thoughts. The killer is when we ask for a research citation for the "facts" the critic has armed himself with. And, that is not an idle question. W we recognize that the best information is that which disinterested third parties provide. We seek that best information to add to our study effort.

This is the most common type of rain effect we experience in the central mid-west. That of the localized rainfall. This radar picture is from June 5, 2006 when St. Joseph, Missouri (the center of the rain clouds) received 0.64 inches. The rest of the region much less.

The less frequent type of rain coverage is that which covers the entire region in a large area rainfall of long duration.

The problem these types of localized rains create is that as experienced on this (2006) spring illustrated.

What we see on this map is that St. Joseph for the two month period received a total of 2.9 inches. An isolated south central Iowa collection station not too far away had 7.9 inches. That kind of disparity in a small area is common. How that effects ground nesting fowl reproduction is that one county may have poor hunt while an hour drive in any other direction will have the hunter in good numbers. To this we offer the flexibility that all that travel to hunt always come prepared for a plan A and plan B. If a favored locality is not working due to earlier or current weather (an ice storm moved in) a short drive to another locality will save the trip. Have those Plan B maps and lodging listing in the truck.

It may seem we are overly focused on rainfall. We have made it a specific study to our quail and pheasant hunting forecast methodology. And, this is one more point about rainfall.

Summer rains have a large variability factor that makes tracking local statistics difficult. The picture below shows how the common summer time rain storm is an isolated rain storm. One where a localized area may get a lot of rain while just to the side of the storm track remains sunny and dry.

If this storm happens to cross a weather collection station then its rainfall will be recorded. However, weather collection stations occupy just one spot on the ground the size of a street light mounting base. There are plenty more areas for such isolated rainstorms to travel and never to be recorded. Compensation for incomplete rainfall data collection is heard daily on the early morning agricultural reports. They speak in terms of listing surface and sub surface soil moisture readings as a better crop growth indicator than localized and incomplete coverage rainfall data.

The rain storm picture above was taken on August 8, 2007 with an unknown amount of rainfall that can be clearly seen in the picture over a limited area in Kansas. While the rain storm in the picture was larger than that which the camera could record the ground observer could easily see both its left and right limits as well as being dry himself.

Impact on Association hunters is such that our year round, on and off season, observations of our various regions help to balance out this incomplete rainfall data. A similar secondary effect is that which we have seen just about every winter and most can relate to is snowfall and ice storms. That is if one locality has snow cover or experiences an ice storm during the season a short drive is typically all that is required to get into or out of the snowfall region or away from the ice covered roads. Summer rain storms as well as winter snow storms have these same localized effects far more frequently than regional coverage storms.

A further effect of such localized weather is that even within as little of an area as a single county there may be poor and excellent quail and pheasant hunting. This is due to localized weather patterns. Most seasoned hunters before leaving any county due to perceived poor hunting will hunt a different unit within that county or a neighboring county before calling it quits for that particular region.

A good newspaper article that well illustrates the localized and often times not "officially" recorded rainfall follows:

The Hays Daily News, Hays Kansas, 8/21/2007.
Rain replenishes some areas of northwest Kansas, by Mike Corn.

"...A small band of heavy rain swept through portions of southeast Gove County and northwest Ness County on Monday evening. But rainfall reports were varied, ranging from a little more than an inch to 3 1/4 inches. A series of isolated storms swept through northwest Kansas, dumping the rain and a 'tiny bit of hail,' said Letha Babcock, 'but it didn't amount to anything.' At Babcock's rural residence, rainfall amounted to 2 3/4 inches. At the Loris and Delaine Jacka home -- 20 miles south of the Quinter exit off Interstate 70 -- rainfall reports stood at 3 1/2 inches and 3 inches in two gauges...Elsewhere, rainfall amounts varied. In Utica, 1.4 inches fell. North of there, at the Mike Kuntz farm, the gauge read 1.85 inches."

Surrounding the Hays area rainfall on 8/20-21/2007 in Greensburg 0.11, Norton 0.0, Washington 0.25 inches. And, the official Hays Kansas recorded rain fall for the period 20 - 21 August 2007 was 0.05. All official rainfall data is available from the Accuweather web site.

Quail And Pheasant Hunting Forecasts Are Inexact

The bottom line remains that quail and pheasant hunting forecasts are an inexact science. They are of variable bodies of information. Collectively and tempered with behind a dog experience lead to enhanced assessments where the better quail and pheasant hunting will and will not be.

2011 - 2012 Hunting Season Forecast